Bayan Research Center

Taking the necessary steps to limit global temperature rise and put the world on a more sustainable path will require transformational leadership and a re-imagining of economies. The Brookings Initiative on Climate Research and Action (BICRA) brings together experts who are shaping workable solutions for local, national, and global leaders to meet the climate challenge and seize opportunities for climate-resilient growth around the world.

Pivoting from global climate laggard to leader: Kigali and American HFC policy

Imagine a climate policy scenario in which the United States in less than two years adopted comprehensive legislation with broad bipartisan support, produced a 69-to-27 Senate super-majority to formally enter a binding global regime, and prepared to lead international efforts to assure full implementation.

Imagine a climate policy scenario in which the United States in less than two years adopted comprehensive legislation with broad bipartisan support, produced a 69-to-27 Senate super-majority to formally enter a binding global regime, and prepared to lead international efforts to assure full implementation. Metaphysical impossibility? It just happened.This does not refer to the new Inflation Reduction Act addressing carbon and methane emissions. That law passed on a strictly-partisan basis and is not linked to an international treaty. Instead, this reflects Wednesday’s Senate vote supporting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on ozone-depleting substances. Kigali is designed to achieve rapid phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a short-lived but highly-intensive climate pollutant used widely in air conditioning and refrigeration systems as well as many aerosols and foams. American ratification cements a stunning shift from global laggard to leader in transitioning toward more climate-friendly coolants. The U.S. now joins 137 other nations (including China and India) and the European Union in pursuing deep reductions in production and use of these substances by the mid-2030s, far beyond policies established for methane or carbon. Global HFC emissions have been growing eight percent annually; they are poised to soar in a world expected to expand from 3.6 billion cooling appliances in 2020 to 9.5 billion by 2050 without a major transition to next-generation coolants. A fully implemented Kigali is expected to reduce global temperatures by 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 Fahrenheit) by century’s end.

October 11 ,2022

Barry G. Rabe

Why climate policy scenarios are important, how to use them, and what has been learned

In an ideal world without uncertainty, policymakers should use a range of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but the core policy should be to price carbon emissions at the level of the marginal cost of carbon emissions, or equal to the social cost of carbon emissions.

In an ideal world without uncertainty, policymakers should use a range of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but the core policy should be to price carbon emissions at the level of the marginal cost of carbon emissions, or equal to the social cost of carbon emissions.However, the real world is highly uncertain. Uncertainty regarding climate science, the economic impact of climate change, and appropriate discount rates across generations all complicate estimates of the social cost of carbon emissions. There are a wide range of estimates ranging from negative numbers to thousands of U.S. dollars per ton of CO2 (Wang et al. 2019), and it is unlikely for policymakers to reach even a vague agreement on the social cost of carbon. There is also a strong argument to go beyond carbon pricing and adopt a mix of policies that lower economic costs and raise the political acceptance of alternative climate policies.In response to climate uncertainty, researchers, businesses, and policymakers are turning to scenario analysis. The use of scenarios is critical for policy design because of the extent of uncertainty and the highly dynamic nature of the system. Policies must adapt to new information on the changing climate, emergent technologies, and the reactions of the economy. However, to effectively use scenarios, policymakers need to understand how scenarios are developed and the strengths and weaknesses of the different modelling approaches.

October 11 ,2022

Roshen Fernando, Weifeng Liu, and Warwick J. McKibbin

Not according to plan: Exploring gaps in city climate planning and the need for regional action

The growing threats from climate change leave the global population no choice: We must decarbonize human activity as soon as possible. That includes changing how we build, travel, generate power, and more to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

The growing threats from climate change leave the global population no choice: We must decarbonize human activity as soon as possible. That includes changing how we build, travel, generate power, and more to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Achieving such transformative change will require a mix of policy reforms, new technologies, and significant capital investments. Under ideal circumstances, cities, national governments, global organizations, and private business owners would seamlessly work together to orchestrate actions that deliver results at the scale and speed the planet needs. The past year has demonstrated that the U.S. federal government can do its part. While political discord has led to paralysis on climate action for well over a decade, within the previous 12 months, Congress has passed three landmark bills—the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)—that together invest hundreds of billions of dollars across a range of advanced research programs, utility-focused incentives, modern manufacturing facilities, consumer-facing rebate programs, and more.

October 11 ,2022

Joseph W. Kane, Adie Tomer, Caroline George, and Jamal Russell Black

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Pivoting from global climate laggard to leader: Kigali and American HFC policy

Why climate policy scenarios are important, how to use them, and what has been learned

Not according to plan: Exploring gaps in city climate planning and the need for regional action

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